Analyst: No Major Price Increases Expected in the Short Term
The heavier-than-expected rainfall in Brazil’s sugarcane-producing regions has led to a 2% drop in sugar prices in New York. March 2025 futures contracts fell by 2.11% on Monday (11/11), settling at 21.36 cents per pound.
“Since prices tried to reach 23 cents, they’ve lost momentum because there are no fundamental factors supporting such a sharp rise,” said Marcelo Filho, market intelligence analyst at StoneX.
He attributes the sugar price decrease to favorable weather conditions for Brazil’s sugarcane fields in the South-Central region of the country.
“In the short term, we’re seeing the impact of the rain on the current harvest. Precipitation has increased over the past two weeks. While this hampers the current harvest, it benefits the development of the plants for the next season,” Filho explained.
The analyst also noted that market players are waiting for data from the Sugarcane Industry Union (Unica), which is set to be released this week.
“This report is crucial as it will indicate which mills are finishing their operations. Unica may also confirm that the sugarcane crop wasn’t as severely impacted by recent drought conditions, as there had been concerns that many plants were facing ‘sudden death’ conditions,” he added.
Cotton
As with last Friday, cotton prices continued to decline in the U.S. market, following more optimistic projections for U.S. ending stocks. December futures contracts fell by 1.82%, to 69.69 cents per pound.
Cocoa
On the upside in the New York market, cocoa stood out. After a decline the previous day, March cocoa contracts closed up 2.68%, at $7,174 per ton.
Coffee
Technical adjustments guided coffee market negotiations in New York. The most traded March contracts rose by 1.09%, closing at $2.5585 per pound. The prices advanced following a 2.5% increase in the previous session, but the market remains directionless, closely watching factors such as Brazil’s harvest progress, the country’s exports, and the ongoing harvest in Vietnam.
Orange Juice
In the concentrated and frozen orange juice (FCOJ) market, January futures contracts saw an increase of 1.39%, reaching $4.7315 per pound.
