Total Deliveries Estimated Between 45 and 46 Million Tons, According to Industry Union
The fertilizer sector in Brazil is expected to end 2024 with positive numbers in line with expectations, according to Aluísio Teixeira, president of the Paraná State Agricultural Fertilizers and Correctives Industry Union (Sindiadubos), speaking at the 18th NPK Symposium 2024.
Teixeira detailed three distinct scenarios projected for the fertilizer sector in 2024, with total deliveries ranging between 45 and 46 million tons and carryover stocks between 9 and 10 million tons.
In the first scenario, deliveries from August to December are estimated to reach 45.7 million tons, with imports of 40 million tons and domestic production of 6.7 million tons, resulting in a carryover stock of 9.6 million tons.
The second scenario, which includes a 2.5% reduction in deliveries, would see carryover stocks rise to 10.2 million tons. However, Teixeira indicated that experts consider this decline unlikely.
The third scenario envisions an increase in deliveries during the last quarter, leading to a total delivery of 46.3 million tons and a final stock of 9 million tons.
Teixeira also discussed the pressure from domestic demand and the challenge of maintaining supply amid a volatile global landscape. He noted that while some consultancies predict price declines due to rising stocks, these expectations do not always hold true in the fertilizer market.
“In a context where agricultural seasonality plays a significant role, such as in the summer harvest, the current stock of 9 million tons is not considered excessive, as demand is likely to grow between January and February next year,” he stated.
He further emphasized the stability in urea supply, with around 1.5 million tons expected by the end of the year. However, high consumption of potassium chloride throughout 2024 has raised concerns about this input, despite forecasts for price reductions.
“While some consultancies suggest a possible drop in prices, the sector warns against making short-term predictions, as end-of-year adjustments could still surprise,” he pointed out.
Regarding phosphorus supply, Teixeira explained that stocks of products such as single superphosphate and triple superphosphate are close to levels seen in 2023, while monoammonium phosphate (MAP) shows a deficit compared to last year. Nevertheless, the supply is considered adequate through the end of the year.
Sindiadubos anticipates that the sector will close the year in balance, ensuring adequate supply for agricultural producers. Teixeira highlighted investments in logistics and the expansion of distribution units as key factors contributing to the resilience of Brazil’s fertilizer market.
