According to Rabobank, forecasts indicate a slowdown in Brazilian coffee exports starting in 2025 due to issues with the harvest and geopolitical factors. Although the country has recorded record export numbers in the past two years, adverse weather conditions have impacted the quality of harvests since 2021, contributing to this projection.
Export Projections
It is estimated that Brazil will ship around 45 million 60 kg sacks in 2025, representing a 7% decline from the 48.4 million sacks projected for this year. Guilherme Morya, an analyst at Rabobank, attributes this reduction to the disappointment with the current harvest and global supply pressures.
While exports may be impacted, European roasters have been anticipating their purchases due to the new European Union anti-deforestation legislation (EUDR). This could lead to a weaker pace of exports in the last months of 2024.
Logistical and Climatic Challenges
In addition to climatic difficulties, logistical issues at Brazilian ports are affecting shipping operations. It is estimated that 2 million sacks of coffee were not shipped in September due to these challenges.
The weather has also played a role in price movements, which are being pressured by improved climatic conditions in Brazil’s main coffee-growing regions and in Vietnam. Arabica coffee prices are expected to range between $2.20 and $2.45 per pound in the first half of 2025.
Demand Expectations
Despite the challenges, demand for Brazilian conilon coffee is expected to continue growing in 2025, driven by production deficits in other producing countries. Brazil is well-positioned to capture a larger share of the international market, especially as prices stabilize.
Brazil’s conilon coffee production may benefit from a more static global supply, particularly in relation to Vietnam, which is expected to face a reduction in production in the upcoming harvest.
Conclusion
Brazilian coffee exports face an uncertain future due to a combination of climatic, logistical, and geopolitical factors. However, Brazil remains an important player in the global market, with growth opportunities in specific segments like conilon coffee. The ability of producers and companies to adapt will be crucial in navigating this challenging landscape.
