The Mercosur region is expected to reach a soybean harvest of 241.6 million tons in the 2024/25 cycle, surpassing the previous year’s 221.4 million tons, according to projections by Céleres Consultoria.
With the increased supply, the region is expected to export 121.7 million tons, accounting for 67% of global soybean exports, reinforcing its influence on market conditions and prices. In Brazil, a record harvest of 170 million tons is expected, with a 2% increase in planted area, reaching 47 million hectares. Despite a delayed start to planting, Céleres does not anticipate significant impacts on Brazil’s soybean harvest.
Argentina is also expected to expand its soybean area, driven by favorable margins supported by a devalued currency. The country’s soybean area is projected to increase by 400,000 hectares (2.3%), totaling 17.7 million hectares, with a possible harvest of 52.6 million tons (+4.3%).
With the expected surge in supply from Mercosur and a full harvest in the U.S. last semester, stocks are expected to remain at record levels, reinforcing a bearish trend for soybean prices in the 2024/25 cycle.
Corn
Although Mercosur’s share in the global corn market is smaller than its soybean share, it is growing. For the 2024/25 cycle, exports from the region are expected to reach 88.4 million tons.
The U.S. and China currently account for over 50% of global corn production, but in the past four years, Mercosur’s share has grown from 13% to 17% for the 2024/25 cycle.
Mercosur’s corn production is expected to reach 190.7 million tons, an increase of 5 million tons from the previous year. However, regional stocks are expected to hit their lowest level in three years.
In Brazil, the summer corn area is expected to decrease by 2.5% to 4.2 million hectares, due to lower profitability compared to soybeans. On the other hand, the winter corn area is set to grow by 280,000 hectares (1.6%), reaching 17.6 million hectares.
In Argentina, due to pest issues like the corn leafhopper, much of the corn area is expected to shift to soybean and wheat planting, with a reduction of 700,000 hectares, resulting in 7.1 million hectares dedicated to corn.
