Among the products with the steepest increases are olive oil, pork loin, sparkling wine, and turkey.
Key Price Hikes
Olive oil, which saw significant price jumps this year due to poor harvests in Europe, leads the list of the biggest increases in the preliminary Christmas Basket Index by the Consumer Price Index (IPC), released by the Fundação Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas (Fipe), with a surge of 21.30%.
Following this, bone-in pork loin rose 19.72%, and orange nectar juice (1 liter) increased by 16.19%.
Other products expected to weigh on the holiday basket include:
- Green olives with pits (9.06%),
- Whole hearts of palm (8.48%),
- Red wine (8.28%),
- Turkey (7.50%).
The 15 traditional items analyzed in the preview are set to see an average increase of 9.16% this year.
Global Influence
Market research shows that traditional Brazilian Christmas basket products are increasingly influenced by global trade and international logistics. These factors result in import challenges and significantly higher prices.
Despite Brazilian sparkling wines being among the best worldwide, many bottles for Christmas are still imported from France, complemented by options from Spain and Italy. Raisins used in panettone and Greek rice dishes predominantly come from Argentina (79%), Iran, and Uzbekistan.
According to Logcomex, a tech company specializing in global trade planning and monitoring, the FOB (Free on Board) value of imported sparkling wines rose 17% between January and September 2024, totaling $28.3 million, compared to the same period in 2023.
Champagne-type sparkling wines saw an even sharper increase of 30%, reaching $16.2 million.
In the same period, the FOB value of raisin imports reached $39.3 million, a 15% increase over the previous year. However, the volume remained nearly unchanged, increasing slightly from 20,300 tons to 20,600 tons this year.
Factors Behind Price Pressures
Helmuth Hofstatter, CEO of Logcomex, explained that reliance on imported inputs makes these products highly sensitive to external factors.
“This year, factors such as port strikes, higher shipping costs, and an increased reliance on road transport have significantly pressured the prices of imported goods,” he noted.
Trends for Sparkling Wine and Fine Wines
Market consultant Rodrigo Lanari predicts a different trend for sparkling wines and fine wines this Christmas. Instead of price hikes, he expects promotions, as the global market is sluggish and demand is low.
“Importers have high inventories. Additionally, the domestic wine harvest was strong. While there might be some logistical inflation, the real pressure will be to sell, meaning there isn’t much room for price increases,” he explained.
Lanari also noted that Brazil consumes 400 million bottles of red wine (60% of which is table wine) and 50 million bottles of sparkling wine. Approximately 90% of fine wines are imported, but only 20% of sparkling wines come from abroad.
