Sales of coffee from Brazil’s 2024/25 harvest have reached 70% of production as of November 12, marking an 8-percentage-point increase compared to the previous month. This data, provided by Safras & Mercado, highlights a faster pace of commercialization compared to the same period last year, when 64% of the crop had been sold.
The current sales performance also exceeds the five-year average of 67%. This trend reflects a strategic approach by Brazilian producers, who have been pacing their sales to capitalize on price increases, resulting in favorable financial outcomes.
Key Drivers of Sales Growth
According to Gil Barabach, a consultant at Safras & Mercado, the ongoing sales momentum is not driven by selling pressure but rather by natural market dynamics. High coffee prices have allowed producers to generate necessary revenue by selling smaller quantities, contributing to a perceived slower sales flow.
Recent months have seen an uptick in sales due to cash flow needs for harvest-related expenses. Additionally, favorable weather conditions, such as rainfall and promising flowering, encouraged sales. However, the primary factor has been the opportunity to take advantage of elevated domestic prices, driven by strong international market prices and a high exchange rate.
Arabica Coffee Performance
Arabica coffee sales have been particularly noteworthy, reaching 67% of production. This outpaces last year’s performance (60%) and the five-year average (64%). Strong sales through cooperatives continue to fuel this dynamic. However, rising prices and reduced seller activity have slowed liquidity.
Barabach notes that external market uncertainties, exchange rate volatility, and questions about the next Brazilian coffee harvest are prompting cautious behavior among producers. Additionally, end-of-year fiscal considerations have further dampened sales activity, as many producers resist selling to avoid tax implications.
Some producers are holding out for prices as high as R$ 2,000 per sack, with select high-quality cherry coffees already achieving this benchmark.
Conilon Coffee Market
While robusta/conilon coffee sales are progressing at a slightly slower pace than arabica, they remain robust. Sales have increased by six percentage points over the past month, reaching 76% of production.
However, external competition, particularly from Vietnam’s new harvest, has limited Brazilian robusta’s market share abroad. Domestically, roasted and ground coffee producers are substituting robusta with weaker arabica blends, further affecting liquidity. Despite this, well-capitalized producers are not rushing to sell, maintaining a steady pace of negotiations.
2025/26 Harvest Sales Lag
Sales from the 2025/26 harvest have been slow, despite attractive prices. Initial forecasts suggest that only 11% of the potential production has been sold so far. For arabica coffee, this figure stands at 16%, significantly lower than the 25% sold during the same period last year and the three-year average of 21%.
Producers remain cautious due to uncertainties surrounding the productivity potential of the next harvest and ongoing price volatility.
Outlook
The strategic pacing of coffee sales, combined with strong market dynamics and favorable pricing, suggests a well-positioned coffee market in Brazil. However, uncertainties about future harvests and international competition may continue to influence producers’ decisions moving forward.
