From January to October 2024, Brazilian beef exports reached 2.4 million tons, marking a 29.9% increase compared to the same period in 2023, according to the Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industries (Abiec). Despite a looming decline in cattle supply expected in 2025 due to Brazil’s cyclical livestock trends, industry experts anticipate that exports will stay robust.
This optimistic outlook persists even as China’s economic growth, a key buyer of Brazilian beef, has shown signs of slowing. At the Sial International Food Exhibition in Paris in October, industry leaders expressed general optimism about maintaining Brazil’s presence in the global market. With other major beef-exporting countries, including the U.S. and several European nations, experiencing downturns in their livestock cycles, Brazil is positioned to capture a larger market share.
Fernando Galletti de Queiroz, CEO of Minerva Foods, expects South America to expand its role in the global beef market. Minerva currently operates 46 facilities across seven countries, including Brazil, and recently incorporated 13 bovine and ovine plants acquired from Marfrig.
Supply Dynamics and Market Demand
Although a slight reduction in Brazil’s cattle supply is anticipated, Queiroz notes that the 2023 calf births will yield sufficient stock for 2025 and 2026. Recent drought conditions have increased domestic beef prices but haven’t significantly impacted export potential. Brazilian ranchers have effectively managed the dry season by supplementing cattle feed with by-products like DDG (distillers dried grains).
The prolonged low cattle supply in the U.S., which could take up to three years to stabilize, is another factor likely to benefit Brazilian exports. Between January and September 2024, U.S. beef imports from multiple sources grew by 16%, totaling nearly 1.1 million tons, of which 122,500 tons came from Brazil—a 62% increase from the previous year.
Market Positioning and Competitive Advantage
Currency exchange rates have bolstered Brazilian beef exports, as each dollar in foreign trade translates to higher returns in Brazilian reais. Even with rising beef prices, Brazil maintains a competitive edge, offering some of the world’s lowest beef prices in dollar terms.
On November 6, Scot Consultoria reported that the price of Brazilian beef was $55.32 per arroba (approx. 15 kg), compared to $61.20 in Argentina and $98.85 in the U.S., reinforcing Brazil’s status as the most affordable beef source globally.
China’s Influence and Shifts in Demand
China, which imported over 1 million tons of Brazilian beef between January and October—a 12.7% increase from the same period in 2023—remains Brazil’s largest beef buyer. Although China’s slowing GDP growth is a concern, Queiroz highlighted that Chinese demand has rebounded following a period of moderate consumption spurred by an increase in local slaughtering. This demand recovery, along with rising export prices, has buoyed the industry’s confidence.
Antônio Camardelli, Abiec’s president, echoed the positive outlook, noting that China’s monthly imports reached 136,000 tons in September and nearly 160,000 tons in October. According to Camardelli, even if China’s growth moderates, its demand will remain significantly larger than that of other individual importers.
